Mystery People

Within a very short time the presidential race will move into its next stage with the naming of the two vice-presidential candidates. Obama is expected to announce his running mate by Saturday of this week in order to have everything in place for next week's Democratic convention. McCain will follow shortly afterward in order to take some of the press coverage away from the Democrats and their convention. Right now, the favorite media sport is speculating on the VP candidates. The press is narrowing in on three possibilities for the Democrats and three or four for the Republicans. Frankly, I would like the answer to be "None of the above" for this one, both because the people touted by the press are far from capable of shifting the campaigns into higher gears (and who needs more of the same?), and because I would like to see the presidential candidates outsmart the press. At this point I'm hoping that we're in for a pair of surprises...but maybe not of the Dan Quayle type.

The Year of the Veep?

The race for president is tightening up, and both sides need something that will generate a boost in the poll ratings and in voter interest. John McCain has succeeded in turning the media's attention to nitty-gritty details as opposed to Obama's long-term "Change" philosophy. They also both have potential liability aspects as voters weigh the impact of age and race on their decisions. The key to victory in this election may well be the identities of the two VP candidates. Each presidential candidate needs to choose someone who will: enhance their combined impact and stature (1+1=3); bring additional votes to the ticket that would not be likely for the presidential candidate alone; give geographic and/or demographic nationwide appeal to the ticket; and offset one or more perceived weaknesses of the top candidate. The selection of VP candidates who cover all of these criteria will be very difficult, but it very well may be critical to the results of the general election and to the perception of the electorate of the worth of each party's ticket. There have been several elections when I voted one way or the other because of my feelings for the vice-presidential candidate, and one or two where I wished the VP candidate was the one running for president. This year the election is going to be extremely close, and the VP candidates may make the difference. I also think that this year's election competition will go right down to the wire and will feature some high-impact last-minute surprises.

Figures Can Lie and Liars Can Figure

Every time you read an article about the forever ongoing presidential election campaign you see citations of statistics from the latest polls. Always remember to take these with a bit of scepticism, even when they show the result you prefer. If I were taking a poll of these matters, I could get totally different results from the same group of people if I simply changed the wording of my questions. For instance, "How troubling will Bill Clinton's presence in a new Clinton White House be for Hillary?" will lead to a totally different result from "Does Hillary Clinton have a great advantage because of Bill being with her in a new Clinton White House?" Similarly, "Does Barack Obama's having lived among people of many ethnic and national backgrounds give him an edge in understanding people from other countries?" will yield a different result from "Do you consider Barack Obama's limited experience in international negotiation meetings a liability?" Going to John McCain, you could ask "Do you think that John McCain's willingness to disagree with George Bush about tactics and spending shows that he would be an independent-minded President?" or you could ask "Do you think that John McCain's continued support of the Iraq war shows that his presidency would be more of the Stay the course mentality?"

Always remember to read the questions (if they even show them) when you examine poll results. In addition, you should look at as many polls as possible, and average the results to get more realistic figures.

John McCain's Campaign Loves Hillary Clinton

The old adage goes "You can't have your cake and eat it too." Someone should mention this to Hillary Clinton. She's getting meaner and more adversarial toward Barack Obama while at the same time saying it would be great if they were running mates for President and Vice President. The first translation of those comments is that it would be nice to be running mates so long as it would be Hillary for President and Barack for Vice President. The second translation is that she is implying that people should vote for her because they could get Barack too (as Vice President). Barack is being forced to fire back more shots at Hillary rather than just defensively responding to her offensives, and every time he does, her staff says he's being mean. If they keep it up, the public will get more than tired of it, and only John McCain's campaign will benefit from it. - And by the way, Hillary, that 3:00 AM phone call to the White House commercial just makes people think positively about John McCain.